| Keyword | Description |
|---|---|
| Cartel | A criminal organization involved in illegal activities such as drug trafficking. |
| Dynamics | Underlying patterns of change, growth, or interaction within systems |
| Surveillance | Focused, systematic, and continuous observation or monitoring of people, places, or data to gather information, manage behavior, or protect assets |
Rafael Prieto-Curiel is a mathematician dedicated to tackling Mexico’s cartel problem using mathematical models. In 2023, Prieto-Curiel, along with two other mathematicians, studied organized crime, revealing that cartels employ between 160,000 and 185,000 Mexicans. This makes them one of the largest employers in the country. To maintain their operations, these groups recruit around 350 to 370 people weekly through various methods, including social media and video games.
Despite these alarming findings, former Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador dismissed the report without evidence. However, Prieto-Curiel continued his work, winning the Science Breakthrough of the Year award for his research. His studies show that arresting cartel members alone does not stop the violence. Instead, preventing recruitment is key to reducing their power.
Prieto-Curiel’s journey began in Mexico City, where he initially worked in finance before joining the police department. He developed a predictive model to focus surveillance efforts in high-risk areas, significantly improving crime detection and response times.
His interest in crime dynamics led him to pursue a PhD in Applied Mathematics in London, where he created simulations showing that crime rates do not directly correlate with public fear. This insight echoed his experiences in Mexico, where fear of crime remained high despite varying crime statistics.
Now at the Complexity Science Hub in Vienna, Prieto-Curiel continues to study organized crime, emphasizing the importance of reducing recruitment. His models predict that even doubling arrests would not reduce violence, as cartels would simply recruit faster. By cutting recruitment in half, Mexico could see a decrease in violence and criminal activity.
Bridging words
These words sound similar in English and Spanish: Why not practice them now?
| English | Spanish |
|---|---|
| Simulation | Simulación |
| Model | Modelo |
| Dynamic | Dinámico |
Time to discuss
- Why do you think reducing recruitment is more effective than increasing arrests in reducing cartel influence?
- How can technology be used to predict and prevent crime?
- What are the potential risks Prieto-Curiel might face in his work against organized crime?
Let’s Write
Answer the following questions in one paragraph
- What challenges do you think Prieto-Curiel faced when creating his crime prediction models?
- How might his work influence future strategies in combating organized crime in Mexico?
